Walter Mebane has updated the analysis we looked at on Tuesday. The analysis now includes town-level polling data from the 2005 election, leading Mebane to conclude "moderately strong support for a diagnosis that the 2009 election was afflicted by significant fraud". Pollster.com has a good review of the updated report; the report itself and the updated R scripts and data are also available.
Update: You might ask whether it's relevant that this analysis was done in R: couldn't it have been done in any statistics package? In this case, I don't think so: here we have a real-time news event, where data is trickling in on a daily, even hourly basis, yet requires deep statistical analysis. R has three key strengths in this context. First, it's a language designed for rapid implementation of analyses: despite messy data, data matching problems, and unusual data manipulations (second digit extraction, anyone?), it enabled Mebane to complete a sophisticated analysis very soon after the data were available. Second, R is backed by a library of thousands of statistical routines for every application imaginable: Mebane relied heavily on his already-published multinomRob package to generate robust estimates (which in turn revealed those suspicious outliers). Thirdly, R is open-source: Mebane published his code and data with the knowledge that anyone could inspect and verify his analysis without being restricted by software license issues. I don't think any other software is capable of this level of analysis, this quickly and this openly. (Octave comes close I guess, as in this analysis, but the stats had to essentially be hand-coded from the equations, limiting its application to those analyses you can code from scratch yourself.)
Pollster.com: Mebane: "Moderately Strong Support" for Iran Fraud