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June 29, 2012

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Thanks for noticing my post! I think it's a nice example of how a real world issue can be explained with just a few lines of R code and the right visualisation.

I should point out (as several commenters on my blog noticed) that the negative binomial distribution breaks down once you start looking at probabilities over several years, since the woman is getting older, and her MCR is changing. So don't leave it too late!

Also, the are loads of other factors that aren't taken into account like health problems, levels of smoking and drinking, obesity, stress and, of course, the fertility of the man.

Good luck to anyone else trying!

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