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February 18, 2014

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compared with the Figure 3 in Cannarella's paper, the fit is not good enough, any solutions to find the best fit?

This google search trend data is standardized, rather than raw counts. What impact would you say this has on the analysis and interpretation here?

The SIR model has three parameters that you can play with - the initial number of infected, beta(infection rate) and gamma(recovery rate). I probably started with a low initial infected number. You can possibly try with a different start and see how it affects the fit. As per Cannerella's paper, IrSIR model offerred a better fit than SIR model. Note that the figure 3 in the paper also has a different aspect ratio and may look like a better fit.

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