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August 30, 2017

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Note: The survey of 23 NATO officers is not from 2007, but at least 30 years earlier, as you might guess by the hand-generated plot. The 2007 date is just the posting date for when cia.gov made Richards Heuer's 1999 Psychology of Intelligence Analysis available online. Most of Heuer's chapters were written by 1986. The NATO plot is republished from the 1977 Handbook for Decision Analysis (Barclay et al., see Heuer's footnote 141).

I no longer have a copy of that report to look up the date of the NATO survey, but it would be between 1964 (when Sherman Kent wrote his "Words of Estimative Probability" and 1977 (when the handbook was published).

Thanks for the useful context, Charles! I've updated the post above.

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