The impact of the drug war in Mexico

For the last couple of years, Mexico has been in the midst of an escalating drug war, with violent crime on the upswing in many areas. But tracking the impact quantitatively is difficult: in Mexico, about 85% of crimes go unreported, and corruption leads to inaccurate reporting in some districts. Diego Valle has taken on the task of visualizing and analyzing the available data with R, and has come up with some startling results. For example, by comparing national with local statistics, Diego has identified a massive underreporting of 1153 murders in the state of Chihuahua:

Diego even employs Benford's Law to uncover evidence of data falsification. There's lots more fascinating analysis in Diego's report, including this choropleth of homicide rate across Mexico:

On a personal note, we'd planned to return to a favorite vacation spot near Zihuatanejo this year. After hearing from locals that the once-tranquil village had been overrun, we cancelled our planned trip. Zihua is near the centre of that hotspot on the south-central coast.

Read Diego's full post for lots more great analysis. He's made all of his R code available, too.

Diego Valle's Blog: Statistical Analysis and Visualization of the Drug War in Mexico

Comments

[ZihuaRob]

I don't know who told you that Zihuatanejo had been "overrun", but because you received incorrect information you apparently missed a lovely and tranquil vacation there for no reason at all. Zihuatanejo is no "hotspot", and the great majority our tourists suffer nothing worse than a sunburn or a hangover.

If you aren't in the narco trade and if you don't carry a badge then Mexico's narcoviolence is unlikely to affect you.

The truth is quite different from the perception. According to the statistics, the number of homicides in Mexico is down considerably from what it was during the 80's and 90's, when places like Cancún, Ixtapa, Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco were in their "golden age".

http://www.infolatam.com/entrada/mexico_estado_fallido-12257.html

Because this is "the information age" and because of the way much of the media reports nowadays (with less objectivity and quite a bit more hysteria), the perception may be that violence is growing and that things are getting worse because news is reported instantaneously and all the bloggers and media harp on the perception and report incessantly on a topic until they wear it out, but the reality on the ground and in the everyday lives of Mexicans and visitors to Mexico is quite the contrary. While of course we have our problems, they are usually not the kind that the media frenzy feeds upon (though we did appreciate the coverage that our campesinos ecologistas such as Rodolfo Montiel and Teodoro Cabrera received).

So the next time you are considering Zihuatanejo for a vacation, I hope you will consult a highly reliable source such as my website where you can ask folks who have recently visited as well as folks who live and work here year round:
http://www.zihuatanejo.net/wwwboard/

Warm saludos from Zihuatanejo!

[Queretaro Real Estate]

I agree with ZihuaRob, it is the media who is being hysteric instead of being objective, I have family members in Zihua and because of this I get to travel there 5 to 8 times a year.

Zihuatanejo has the good the bad and the ugly just like any other city in Mexico or elsewhere (other countries) but I do not beleive it has been overrun by anybody, well mayme it is overrun by tourists on the weekends and holidays that arrive from other states such as Michoacan, Guanajuato and Queretaro.

Next time you think of visiting Zihua or any other city in Mexico please do so and see for your self that Mexico is a safe place to visit, regardless.

[Sirena]

I'd like to second the excellent comment by ZihuaRob. Off-the-cuff remarks, such as the one made in your article, can have a profound impact on people's decisions to visit an overall safe, popular, and thriving Mexican town. Before you add to the current media hysteria surrounding Mexico (and use inflammatory terms like "overrun") I really do recommend backing it up with statistics such as those in ZihuaRob's comments and his often-used website, a great resource for anyone planning on visiting beautiful Zihuatanejo (which, last time I checked, is still on the 1,000 Places to Visit In Your Lifetime list).

[Mike Johnson - Mortgage Broker]

I fear my own remaining concerns about visiting Zihua are the perfect testament to the kind of damage an article like this does, whether the damage is for a good cause or not. Obviously the present commenters would say I am needlessly tenuous to visit an extremely safe area. And after a visit to ZihuaRob's site, I am beginning to believe them.

[Maira]

I agree with ZihuaRob. If you're not dealing with any drug dealers it is a great place to go to a vacation. It is not the "hot spot" I went this summer and it was awesome. I did not worry one bit because I am not messing with any of the cartel people.

[sue ingram]

I empathize with those of you living there vs those of you wanting to visit and being put off by what you read in the media. The article about the drugs and crime seems to be very real and in terms of the objective of the article is probably all true. But in terms of tourism, it does not paint the full picture. ie. there are drugs and crime there, but they don't impact you as a tourist unless you ask for trouble by looking for drugs and interact with the crime gangs.
Many times there are instances where the crime related to the drug environment does spill over into neutral holiday venues and this tends to put off many wary tourists. I guess being forewarned is the best way to go. Be aware and not ignorant and then just enjoy yourself!

[Puerto Vallarta Airport]

Indeed, the real life in Mexico is very different than the tourist one presented by travel agencies. I visited Puerto Vallarta last summer and realized this.