Here's a quick quiz: what rule is behind the number sequence: 2, 4, 8? This New York Times interactive lets you try to solve the puzzle yourself, and you can also see members of the public try to solve the problem in the Veritasium video below.
If you want to see what the answer is, proceed below the fold...
I'm ashamed to say that I got the answer wrong: after trying two sequences I settled on the answer, "each number is double the previous number". I never tried a sequence that would disprove that hunch, when in fact any ascending sequence would serve. This is a great example of confirmation bias: how many of us tend to seek proof points for our preconcieved notions, while avoiding opportunities to disprove them. As of this writing, 79% of participants in the NYT quiz gave an answer without once getting a negative response to a proposed sequence. (Read on below the NYT quiz for a great explanation of confirmation bias.) This was a really eye-opening result for me (which I hope I didn't spoil for you with the title!).
That's all for this week. Have a great weekend!
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